AI Infra Arms Race

Late January early febuary big tech disclosed their 2026 capital expenditure. Wall Street predicted a CapEx increase of 19% but everyone was shocked. the numbers given are franly astronomical.

2026 CapEx :

Company 2026 CapEx ($B)
Oracle ~50
Meta ~125
Microsoft ~130
Alphabet ~180
Amazon ~200
Total ~685

ok cool big number, but what does this mean in a historical context :

Project / Entity Total Cost (Adjusted) Duration Avg. Spend Per Year
Interstate Highway System ~$550 Billion 50 Years ~$11 Billion
Apollo Moon Program ~$320 Billion 13 Years ~$25 Billion
Manhattan Project ~$35 Billion 4 Years ~$9 Billion
Transcontinental Railroad ~$30 Billion 6 Years ~$5 Billion

that puts it into perspective doesnt it? the even wilder thing is these historical projects were government backed, this AI spend is almost completely private industry. the US entire Defence budget is approximately 900B.

even more, Once you Build a Higway or Railroad you get to keep the infrastructure and just maintain it. in this AI arms race approximately 60% is going into depreciating GPUs.

lets compare the GDP of countries.

Entity GDP / CapEx ($B)
Switzerland $1,000
Belgium $716.98
Big Tech AI (2026 CapEx) $685
Sweden $662.32
Israel $610.75

wlld isnt? to be witnessing the largest infrastructure buildout in history.